Media Appearances
Interviews and analysis on macroeconomic trends, appearing on leading media outlets.
All appearances
2026
Soaring pump prices drive US inflation to highest level in almost two years
Transitory is the hope, but Fed officials will think twice before telling the public they expect inflation to be transitory, after having misjudged post-pandemic inflation and mislabelled it as such," Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg said."
Squawk Box Europe 06-Mar-26
Discussing the macro impact of higher oil prices.
Donald Trump’s new 10% global tariff comes into effect
Atakan Bakiskan, a US economist at the bank Berenberg, said: “The new section 122 tariffs may also face court challenges, as the current US trade deficit may not meet the condition of ‘large and serious balance-of-payments’ deficits that grant the president authority to impose tariffs to address ‘fundamental international payments problems’.” However, he added: “It would be surprising if the Trump administration, after the 150 days during which the 15% tariffs remain in effect (assuming Congress does not vote to extend them), were to back down from its protectionist trade policy agenda. During this 150-day period, it will likely explore new pathways to move closer to its preferred tariff regime. There are several options available.”
Inflation eases in US as prices for used cars fall
"The year could not have started on a better footing for Fed officials," said Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg. "That said, we lean toward the view that, sooner rather than later, labour shortages will exert enough upward pressure on wage growth such that services inflation will not come down enough for inflation to return to Fed's 2% target - a goal the Fed has now missed for 59 months – but hey, who's counting?"
Healthcare saves the US labour market, again
Berenberg’s Atakan Bakiskan concurs: If not for healthcare jobs, the headline nonfarm payroll reading would have been -7k instead of 130k. But a job is a job, and the employment gains in healthcare are mostly structural -- nothing to do with the short-end of the yield curve, but more to do with an aging population
Wanted: CEOs with backbone
As Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg, put it in a recent investor note: “For the first time since the 1918 Spanish flu, the second world war and the Covid-19 pandemic, the US resident working-age population may decline on a year-over-year basis. With near zero or negative net immigration in 2025 and 2026, the US economy is unlikely to deliver GDP gains close to those recorded in Q2 and Q3 2025.”
Powell probe: 'I don't think this is helping ordinary Americans at all', economist says
Speaking with FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney, Atakan Bakiskan, an economist at Berenberg Private Bank, says that the US Federal Reserve would lose its political independence should Chair Jerome Powell resign and should the Supreme Court allow the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, leaving the central bank with a majority of Trump appointees on its board.
Trump’s attempts to influence Fed risk 1970s-style inflation and global backlash
Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg bank, said: “If the Fed pursues an ultra-accommodative monetary policy despite higher inflation, the result could resemble the 1970s in a worst-case risk scenario. “Moreover, if the Fed acts on politics rather than data, foreign investors could pull back on financing the US debt and seek new safe havens.”
Markets Recover from Early Dip as Wall Street Assesses Fed Threat
"The market may be too complacent,” Atakan Bakiskan, an economist at the bank Berenberg, wrote in a note on Monday. “If the Fed pursues an ultra-accommodative monetary policy despite higher inflation, the result could resemble the 1970s in a worst-case risk scenario.” Foreign investors could also turn away from U.S. debt and look for other havens, he added.
US hiring slumps under Trump
The Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates once this year after the US jobs market appeared stronger than feared, Berenberg said. Its US economist Atakan Bakiskan said “fears of a labour market collapse have eased” after the December nonfarm payroll report showed unemployment fell from 4.6pc in November to 4.4pc. He said: “The previously reported spike that fuelled doomsday scenarios was entirely driven by a jump in unemployment rate among 16-19-year-olds – an anomaly that never fully added up. “A jobless rate of 4.4pc in December, alongside a 50k month-over-month job gain following a 56k increase in November, points to a balanced labour market, giving the Fed little urgency to continue cutting rates – at least until a new Fed chair is in place.” As a result, the Fed will only make on more rate cut in June, he said.
2025
Squawk Box Europe - 16-Dec-25
Discussing the outlook for the US labor market, inflation, and the Fed’s next moves
Euro hits almost seven-week high, dollar broadly lower
However, market participants do not expect the Fed to lose its independence or become less effective in controlling inflation, a scenario that would raise bond risk premiums and could trigger a fresh selloff in U.S. assets. "The term premium, the additional compensation that investors demand to hold a long-term bond instead of a series of short-term bonds, for the 10-year Treasury yield has remained largely unchanged since the start of the year," noted Atakan Bakiskan, U.S. economist at Berenberg. "Similarly, long-term inflation expectations remain well-behaved, signalling an eventual return to the 2% inflation target," he argued.
Squawk Box Europe 13-Nov-25
Discussing the end of the government shutdown
Çağlar Ötesi - Yapay Zekanın İnsani Sınırları | 4 Kasım 2025
Discussing the AI trade and its macro implications
Stocks Rise for Fourth Day; Treasuries Rally: Markets Wrap
From Bloomberg: "We believe that even if the September nonfarm payroll report cannot be published before the Fed meeting, officials will have enough information about the labor market to deliver another 25 basis point /'insurance' cut at the October meeting," said Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg.
US Government Shutdown: Time to Worry?
Discussing the looming government shutdown and the health of the labor market with Julianna Tatelbaum and Stephen Sedgwick
Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee could hurt US growth, economists warn
Move is a blow to big tech companies, which rely heavily on visas to hire staff from overseas, particularly India
US inflation rises ahead of key interest rate decision
From BBC News: "President Donald Trump's inflationary policies - tariffs and restrictive immigration measures - are gradually showing up in the hard data and continue to erode consumers' purchasing power," said Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at banking group Berenberg.
Gold hits $3,600 as US rate cut expectations rise
From Financial Times: Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg, said that he expected the price of gold to keep rising, driven by an expectation that “some foreign demand will continue to shift from US Treasuries to gold, as foreign investors lose confidence in the US”. Bakiskan also said that he expected the value of the dollar to keep declining, which supports a higher gold price. The greenback has shed more than 10 per cent against a basket of other currencies this year.
European Stocks Fall as Fed Cut Bets Fail to Offset Weak US Jobs
From Bloomberg: Atakan Bakiskan, an economist at Berenberg, said the print showed a "weak report from every angle." Still, "the odds of a jumbo 50 basis point cut remain low, as the unemployment rate – arguably the most important metric – ticked up marginally," he added.
FTSE 100 hits record high; ministers prepare special administration for Yorkshire steel plants – as it happened
"Markets are expecting the Fed to cut rates at its next meeting in mid-September. However, Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg Bank, is forecasting no change. What can we expect at Jackson Hole? He said: Jackson Hole or black hole? The annual Jackson Hole conference – running from tomorrow through Saturday – has often served as a platform for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to deliver clear signals on upcoming monetary policy moves. Powell is scheduled to speak at 10am EST on Friday. This year may prove different due to the unusual series of events and persistent uncertainty that have unfolded since Donald Trump took office in January. Recent economic data offers no clear direction for the federal funds rate. One the one hand, core CPI inflation rose to 3.1% yoy as of July (up from 2.8% yoy in March). On the other hand, job growth slowed sharply, even as the labour market remains broadly balanced. Powell may avoid sending a definitive message and instead stress the importance of August inflation and employment reports in shaping the next rate decision. Both will be released before the 17 September meeting. If Powell sounds less dovish than markets expect, front-end [bond] yields will likely rise and traders will trim their September rate cut expectations. We maintain our call for no Fed rate cut in September. Of course, the risks to our non-consensus call tilt to the downside. A weak August jobs report could force the Fed to cut even in the face of elevated inflation
Jackson Hole preview
Talked about what to expect at Jackson Hole and the future of the Fed.
The Global Reset | Implications Of The Tariff Truce Extension Between US And China
On today's episode of #TheGlobalReset Prashant Nair sits down with Atakan Bakiskan of Berenberg and discusses the implications of the tariff truce extension between US and China. With the tariff pause now extended by 90 days, street now looks ahead at they high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Squawk Box Europe - 06-Aug-25
Discussing nonfarm payrolls and the Fed.
New Trump tariffs 'not the worst-case scenario,' Berenberg says
The latest changes to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies are, in some ways, "not the worst-case scenario, as Trump had previously indicated that the universal 10% baseline rate could double," Berenberg U.S. economist, Atakan Bakiskan, said in a Friday note. Bakiskan nevertheless added that the new levies mark a "huge blow to global commerce" and forecast that the U.S. will suffer the hit of the new levies by way of higher domestic inflation and slower growth. "The tariffs distort competition between companies that produce in the US to serve the US market relative to those that produce abroad. But many European Japanese and South Korean-based producers compete more against each other than against US-based producers in the US market," the economist said. "As they all face a 15% levy, the competition between them is distorted by less than would have been the case if Trump had imposed widely different country-specific US tariffs against these key advanced economies," Bakiskan added
Trump's Fed Grab Shakes the Foundation of Global Finance
"If Trump's strong-arm tactics against Fed officials continue, the US will eventually pay for this with a weaker dollar and higher long-term borrowing costs," said Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg. If a market backlash does take shape, he said, "this could cause Trump to back off. We learned in the past that Trump responds to markets, and the bond market may be his weak spot, given the growing US debt and fiscal deficits."
Fed Governor Cook will sue to keep her job as Trump mulls replacement
From Reuters: "Berenberg economist Atakan Bakiskan says Trump's actions could test the boundaries of presidential power. These are just really like the first chess moves in an attempt for a greater political interference," Bakiskan said.
Fed Chair under pressure from President Trump
Talked about Jackson Hole, the Fed's independence, the jobs report, and inflation with BBC News.
US economy grows faster than expected as Trump announces 25% tariffs on India – as it happened
"The US economy is still growing under Donald Trump’s presidency, but at a slower rate than last year under Joe Biden. Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg, an investment bank, said: Since the start of the year, US economic activity has expanded by 1.2% annualised, much slower than last year’s odds-defying first-half performance of 2.3% annualised. This softer growth path will likely persist – courtesy of slower immigration, trade wars and an uncertain macro environment. But for future interest rate decisions the Federal Reserve is likely to deprioritise the GDP figures in favour of the jobs data due to be released on Friday. Bakiskan again: Given the lag and the noisy signal it sends, GDP will remain in the backseat. The Fed will stay focused on what sits in the front seat - the holy grail nonfarm payroll data - to assess the health of the US economy. That has so far proved resilient so far and should remain so on Friday. With only a few hours left until the Fed decision, which is all but guaranteed to be a hold, today’s GDP report will not change the narrative of a slowing but not stalled US economy."
Powell's cautious tone scrambled the market's expectations for rate cuts in September
"Nothing in the Fed statement shifts our long-held view of no rate cuts in 2025," Atakan Bakiskan, a US economist at Berenberg, wrote in a note.
FTSE 100 share index hits 9,000 points for the first time; US inflation rate rises to 2.7% – as it happened
"Today’s June US inflation report revealed early signs of tariff-led price increases, though not yet large enough to meaningfully move the headline, reports Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg: With more tariff damage ahead, the Fed will certainly not feel content with today’s report, especially as core goods excluding used cars rose 0.3% mom in June -- the highest monthly increase since March 2023."
How trade tensions are really affecting the global economy
The prospect of more uncertainty and sudden swings in policy under Trump is also weighing on future business sentiment, according to Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg bank. “Businesses that felt optimistic about tax cuts and deregulation at the start of the year suddenly lost confidence,” he wrote in a June research note, citing multiple indices of business plans for investment and new orders in both services and manufacturing contracting following April 2. “At first glance, tariffs may appear to have only dented consumer and business sentiment rather than caused real economic damage. However, the stagflationary effect of tariffs is still in the pipeline,” he added. “We expect clearer signs of tariff damage to emerge in coming months.”
Why markets could lose their cool this summer
"Trump may have retreated from his most outlandish tariff plans, but the effective tariff rate on US imports has risen from 2 to 15 per cent – the highest since the second world war. Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg, warns that “the tariff damage is just a few months away” and expects clear signs of stagflation to emerge in economic data over the next few months. Bakiskan sees an equity market correction as a serious risk lying ahead. "
Fed downgrades growth in fresh blow for Trump
But Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at merchant bank Berenberg, believes there are dangers of cutting rates too early. He said: “Mr Too Late? More like Mr Patient… “Inflation data may have come in soft over the past couple of months, but tariffs have yet to fully affect the data. In addition, the key indicator that the Fed watches closely – inflation expectations – shows little sign of easing. “Consumers still expect higher inflation in the year ahead, and so do businesses. Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. “However, cutting interest rates while short-term inflation expectations stay elevated and upside pressures on inflation persist could risk unanchoring them – the last outcome the Fed would want.”
U.S. labor market is looking solid, Berenberg economist says
Atakan Bakiskan, U.S. economist at Berenberg, previews the non-farm payroll data and outlines what a strong U.S. labor market looks like